October 2025 Newsletter
A Word from our President
by – Ron McEwen-Cold Control
LOOKS LIKE FALL IS FINALLY HERE, OOPS, NEVERMIND! UPPER 80’S IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER IS CRAZY! WELL, THAT MIGHT NUDGE SOME FOLKS ON THE FENCE ABOUT REPLACING THEIR A/C TO GO AHEAD AND GET IT DONE! REMEMBER, WE’RE IN KANSAS AND WE COULD HAVE A FOOT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND NEXT MONTH!
THANKS TO ALL THAT ATTENDED LAST MONTHS GENERAL MEETING, DAN FENN ( FROM FEDERATED) WENT OVER THE RECOMMENDED PROCEEDURES TO HANDLE REFRIGERANMTS AND OTHER GASSES WE CARRY ON OUR VANS OR STORE AT OUR SHOPS.
CONGRATUALTIONS TO DAVE HILL FROM CHENEY ELECTRIC WHO WAS AWARDED THE $500 KCCA TOOL SCHOLARSHIP
WE ALSO HAD OUR FIRST OF (3) CONTINUING ED CLASSES THAT WAS GOOD FOR (3) CODE CREDITS
OUR NEXT CLASSES ARE SCHEDULED FOR TUESDAT OCT 21st AND NOVEMBER 11th PLEAS GO TO OUR WEBSITE TO GET SIGNED UP IN PERSON OR VIA ZOOM.
ALSO PUT DECEMBER 9th IN YOUR CALENDER, WE WILL BE HAVING OUR KCCA CHRISTMAS PARTY AGAIN AT REDDI INDUSTRIES
Ron McEwen
Cold Control Refrigeration Inc
I look forward to seeing you throughout the year.
Please feel free to contact me with any questions,
Ronm@coldcontrolks.com
Office 316-942-9650
These awesome shirts/jerseys are available for sale…. get your orders in now. The KCCA sponsored shirt helps support our veterans. With the assistance of one of our organizations that we help support, the B4V aka Bagging for veterans helps support our local veterans as a Cornhole organization. All KCCA paid members names are on the shirt/jersey. Get your own personal name on the back to make it your own. All proceeds from sales will go to support our local veterans and the B4V group. Look great in your new shirts/jersey and help our heroes at the same time. Please make sure to include the size you want( pick a size larger because they are not true to fit) and the name/ nickname you want to represent.
Thank you all for your support!!!
MABCD Newsletter
Click here to get the latest updates on Mechanical, Electrical and Plumbing changes to code.
2025/2026 Meetings
September’s General Meeting
Thank you Dan for coming to speak about OSHA compliance and making sure we were all updated with the regulations. We had a great turn out of 16 present and the big $100 winner was Mike Parrott from Hanna, congratulations.
Hope to see you @ future meetings!! All general meetings are held on the 3rd Tuesday, except no meeting in July or December.
Residential HVAC Sales Run Out of Steam
Weak demand, refrigerant shortages, and excess inventory drag down the year
September 16, 2025
The mood around residential HVAC turned decidedly downbeat at this year’s Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference. Speaking at the event, leaders from Carrier, Trane, Lennox, and Watsco warned that cautious consumers, high interest rates, and lingering inventory issues are converging to create one of the toughest markets in years. And none of them expect relief until well into 2026.
Carrier: Weak Volume
Carrier CEO David Gitlin struck a sober tone at the conference, noting that the North American residential HVAC market weakened dramatically as summer progressed. AHRI data showed an almost 30% drop in July sales volumes, which he said mirrored Carrier’s own results. August and September fared no better, leading Gitlin to project that Carrier’s third-quarter residential volumes would fall more than 40% year-over-year — the steepest decline in more than a decade.
“It is hard to pinpoint the exact root cause, but clearly the combination of high interest rates and pressure on the consumer are increasingly weighing on consumer spending, including on new and existing home sales, leading to delayed residential HVAC activity,” he said.
In response, distributors are deliberately reducing their stock, with Gitlin forecasting field inventories to be down about 15% year over year by the end of Q3. By Q4, he expects inventory levels to return to pre-pandemic levels. “So, in essence, in Q3, we are seeing the combined impact of lower consumer demand, as well as aggressive destocking by our distributors,” he said.
By Carrier’s estimates, about half of its $500 million Q3 sales shortfall will stem from destocking, with the rest tied to soft demand. The company has responded with sharp cost-cutting, including a reduction of more than 2,000 indirect employees and scaling back factory output.
Gitlin also took a firm line against any potential EPA extension of R-410A production, warning it would disrupt the industry’s transition to R-454B and ultimately raise costs for homeowners. “We’ve switched our factories over to R-454B, so to switch back to R-410A would be an investment, and that investment would have to go somewhere, and it would probably go to the consumer,” he said. “We hope not only for Carrier but for the industry that we do not go back to R-410A.”
Trane: A Difficult Year
Trane Technologies CEO Dave Regnery acknowledged similar headwinds, with the company’s residential business expected to be down as much as 20% in Q3 and high single digits for the full year. However, he stressed that Trane’s residential business represents only about 15% of Trane’s enterprise, which gives the company a broader base of support.
“Yes, the residential business is running into some tough times, and yes, we are managing the business appropriately from a cost standpoint,” said Regnery. “We have taken some time out of our factories so that we can balance the inventory load within the channel. We’re doing all the right things to make sure that we can maximize the opportunities that we have within residential.”
In addition to inventory challenges, other dynamics such as high interest rates and weak home sales are weighing down the market, said Regnery. The rocky start of the transition to R-454B also didn’t help, and consumers may be growing uneasy about higher equipment prices.
“Pricing has been sticky,” said Regnery. “We had a regulatory change on the refrigerant. From an engineering standpoint, that went fine, but from a supply of 454B cylinders in the marketplace, that did not go so well. So people lost some confidence there. I think it’s a lot of different variables that are causing that. I think structurally, the resi business is fine. It’s a great business. It’ll be a great business well into the future. Look, 2025 is going to be a difficult year for a lot of different reasons. But at the end of the day, I think, we will move beyond this in 2026.”
Lennox: Bracing For Headwinds
Lennox CFO, Michael Quenzer outlined a host of challenges in the residential market, from tariffs and cooler weather to R-454B shortages, lingering R-410A inventory, and weak existing home sales.
“We’ve known coming into this year that it was going to be a bit of a noisy year going through this regulatory challenge,” he said. “We knew there was going to be destocking. And as we went into the year, all of a sudden, we had to navigate tariffs. The weather was cold. We had an R-454B canister shortage. Existing home sales were soft. All of these variables were hitting at the same time.”
He added that many distributors still have R-410A stock to clear by year-end, which will pressure results in the near term. “We think longer term, though, structurally, the industry is still very disciplined in how we go to market, and we’re looking forward to getting into next year.”
Quenzer also noted that while homeowners may be opting for repairs now, those decisions will eventually lead to replacements. “It’s not like there is a great substitute for HVAC unless people don’t want to have heating and air conditioning. We also see some megatrends, where the average life of the system continues to get stressed and shorter. As you do these repairs, they’re not going to last as long, and the cost of the legacy gas – R-410A – is going to put more pressure on the cost of repairs, as well as electricity usage and cost.”
On pricing, CEO Alok Maskara added that OEMs are holding firm. “I think so far, we’ve seen very rational pricing from all the OEMs. A lot of these OEMs have the same input costs as we did … I expect price and cost will continue to go up. I don’t think inflation is going to stop there. I think the next level will be early next year when we all come out and announce our next level of price increases. But for the balance of the year, I think we’re pretty well set from a price perspective.”
Watsco: Maintain Margin
As the largest HVAC distributor in North America, Watsco offered a ground-level perspective on the market. Executive vice president of planning and strategy Barry Logan described 2025 as a year of “heaviness,” with unit volumes down about 12% year-to-date — a trend consistent with the company’s second-quarter earnings call.
“I would say that’s a very consistent percentage for what we’re seeing right now. So no real change in trend or behavior as we got through the summer, positive or negative,” he said. “In July, our revenue dollars were flattish. I would say the same thing sitting here in September. Our earnings were up slightly in the second quarter, and I would say we have that opportunity for the third quarter.”
Logan echoed OEMs in pointing to inventory distortions and the refrigerant transition as key factors weighing on residential sales. Weak demand is also a factor. “The reality is that the demand structure this year isn’t what any of us would have thought going into the year,” he said.
Pricing, however, has remained firm, with new products trending about 12% higher. Logan noted that included a mix of introductory pricing and subsequent increases, and margins are holding steady.
Watsco’s priority, he stressed, is to maintain pricing, margins, and share through the current downturn. Lower interest rates could help, particularly as existing home sales — down 15% to 20% in some markets — remain a drag on demand. Logan noted that industry shipments this year may end up close to 2019 levels, even though today there are 15% more installed units in the field.
While consumers may be in a “trough” at the moment, Watsco is investing in initiatives and incentives to support contractors. As Logan noted, “The focus is on how do we get the contractor to have the swagger to go replace more units next year and not necessarily count on what the economy is doing.”
Funny Photos
Key Employee Risk Management Strategies for Leaders
Unsafe employee behavior can lead to injuries, legal liabilities, and even fatalities. As a leader, your role often includes providing clear structure and strong guidance to help promote workplace safety. Establishing and enforcing strong workplace policies, alongside regular training, can be beneficial to reducing dangerous practices in your work environment.
Here are five tactics business owners can consider adopting:
1. Establish a Risk Prevention Policy
A clear, accessible risk prevention policy can set expectations for employees and employers. Update the policy regularly to reflect new safety standards, outline proper equipment use, emergency procedures, and acceptable behavior.
2. Conduct Safety Training
Regular training can proactively address potential hazards. Host sessions frequently to cover workplace risks, equipment use, and emergency procedures. Interactive training encourages participation and ensures employees understand expectations.
3. Enforce a Zero-Tolerance Policy
Unsafe practices, like not wearing personal protective equipment (PPE), may need clear consequences. A zero-tolerance approach can foster a culture where employees prioritize risk management.
4. Provide The Right Tools
Consider providing employees with necessary tools, such as checklists, hazard-reporting apps, and ergonomic equipment. These investments can reduce risks and show your commitment to employee well-being.
5. Promote Open Communication
Create a culture where employees feel safe reporting hazards or near misses. You can offer anonymous reporting options and act quickly on concerns. Transparent communication can help to identify and resolve issues early.
Employing risk management strategies like these and putting your employees wellbeing first can help create a more safety-focused workplace.
Reach out to your local Federated Insurance® marketing representative today for more risk management resources. Federated® clients can access mySHIELD® for additional industry-specific resources.